"무가베, 북한으로 망명할 것인가"…美 언론 제기

미국 국방전문지 ‘브레이킹 디펜스’ 칼럼…북한의 역할 조명

짐바브웨의 로버트 무가베 대통령의 37년 장기집권을 몰락시키는데 북한이 결정적 기여를 했다는 주장이 미국 언론에서 제기되고 있다.

컬림니스트 콜린 클락(Colin Clark)씨는 미국 국방전문지 ‘브레이킹 디펜스’(Breaking defense)지에 낸 ‘북한과 짐바브웨 쿠데타'’라는 제목의 칼럼에서 “짐바브웨 군사쿠데타가 북한이 독재자(무가베)의 집권에 어떤 역할을 했는지를 조명하는 기회가 될 것”이라고 평가했다.

그는 무가베가 짐바브웨를 떠날 경우 어디로 가야할 것인지를 묻고, 혹여 그런 사태가 벌어질 경우 북한을 지목했다. 이 매체는 현재 에디오피아의 독재자 멩기스투 하일레 마리암이 짐바브웨에 망명해 있는데, 둘다 짐바브웨를 떠나지 않겠는가, 예상했다.

다음은 콜린 클락의 칼럼 요약이다.

북한은 짐바브웨의 제5여단을 훈련시켰는데, 그 여단은 1988년 해체되기 이전까지 살인과 폭력으로 오명을 떨쳤다. 그 여단은 무가베에 직접 보고했고, 정규군은 아니었다. 북한은 짐바브웨의 우라늄 광물에 접근하도록 하용되었다는 보도가 있는데, 그 우랴늄 염(yellow cake)이 짐바브웨에서 은둔의 왕국(북한)으로 건네졌는지는 확인하기는 어렵다.

무가베는 북한의 지도자들과 수십년간 우호관계를 유지해 왔다. 유엔의 한 기구는 짐바브웨가 북한과의 교역에 관한 무역규제를 위반했는지를 조사해왔다. 아프리카에서 짐바브웨만이 북한과 어울린 것은 아니다. 나미비아도 북한의 두 개 회사와 군사시설 건설에 관해 계약했다가 유엔의 제재로 2016년 6월에 취소한 바 있다.

이웃나라들은 짐바브웨의 혼란이 부정적 영향을 미칠지 촉각을 곤두세우고 있다. 남아프리카공화국, 나미비아, 모잠비크, 보츠와나는 짐바브웨와 밀접한 무역거래와 인적 유대를 맺고 있다. 짐바브웨 국민들은 남아프리카 다이아몬드 광산과 금광에서 일하고 있고, 짐바브웨도 자체적으로 백금과 다이아몬드 광산을 보유하고, 농산물을 이웃나라에 제공하고 있다.

무가베는 아직 가택연금 중이다. 남아공의 제이콥 주마 대통령은 동료인 무가베와 통화를 했다는 보도다. 남아공 국방장관과 내무장관은 짐바브웨로 가서 무가베와 짐바브웨 국방장관을 만날 예정이다.

무가베는 짐바바웨를 결제적으로, 사회적으로, 정치적으로 파괴했다. 그는 에디오피아의 독재자 멩기스투 하일레 마리암(Mengistu Haile Mariam)에게 망명처를 제공했다. 멩기스투는 2008년 대학살을 주도한 아프리카 최고의 독재자로 악명을 떨쳤다. 무가베도 그에 못지 않게 재산을 약탈하고 살인을 저지르고 나라를 병들게 한 것은 마찬가지다. 두 독재자는 이제 어디로 갈 것인가. 북한을 갈 것인가.

North Korea & The Zimbabwe Coup 美 'Breaking defense' 칼럼

By Colin Clark

WASHINGTON: While it’s too early to say conclusively that the terror, fear, corruption and brutality of the Robert Mugabe regime is at an end, the coup in Zimbabwe offers a chance to highlight how important a role North Korea has played in keeping the old man in power.

It’s true. I miss the massive adrenaline rush of covering a coup, having had the raw luck of being on the ground to cover the toppling of Jaafar Nimeiri in Sudan and Milton Obote in Uganda (he is believed to have killed more people than the celebrated Idi Amin). And those who’ve seen them up close know there is a ridiculously standard playbook for a coup. Line up supporters. Make sure your guys have guns and the other guys are locked down or at least don’t have the mobility and weapons to fight back. Capture the main broadcast centers. Issue standard reassurance that everything is fine — we’re just fixing the country. Limit travel to and within the capital. Try hard not to kill any senior people on the other side because you may need them later on.

The Zimbabwean military have followed the playbook perfectly, so far. Their addition of the line that “this isn’t a coup” adds a frisson of unreality to the whole thing and probably helps to disarm some who might otherwise oppose a coup.

The tragedy of Zimbabwe is a simple one. Mugabe, 93, began his time in office as a magnanimous winner, encouraging the opposition regardless of color to stay and build what for a time was, arguably, Africa’s most successful country. Then Mugabe, increasingly acting as the seemingly inevitable Bwana Mkubwa (big man in Swahili), reached out to North Korea for help destroying his opposition.

North Korea trained Zimbabwe’s infamous Fifth Brigade, infamous for murder and mayhem until it was disbanded in 1988. The brigade reported directly to Mugabe and was not part of the regular military. North Korea was reportedly granted access to Zimbabwe’s uranium deposits, though it’s awfully difficult to confirm whether any yellow cake ever travelled from Zimbabwe to the Hermit Kingdom.

But Mugabe has maintained friendly ties with North Korea, and with its leaders, for decades. A UN body recently investigated Zimbabwe for violating sanctions against trade with North Korea. And Zim wasn’t the only Southern African country dallying with North Korea. Pressured by the UN, Namibia announced June 2016 it would drop contracts with two North Korean companies building military facilities in the sparsely populated but mineral-rich country formerly controlled by South Africa.

Zimbabwe is well worth paying close attention to because of the potentially destabilizing effects of its internal turmoil on its neighbors. South Africa, the continent’s economic behemoth, has extremely close trade and personal ties to Zimbabwe, as do Namibia, Mozambique, Botswana and Zambia. Many Zimbabweans have traditionally worked in South Africa’s crucial diamond and gold mines. Zimbabwe possesses its own platinum and diamond mines and offers some of Africa’s potentially most productive agriculture.

Mugabe is alive and confined to his house, South Africa’s corrupt President Jacob Zuma said earlier today after reportedly speaking with his colleague.

South Africa’s Minister of Defense Nosiviwe Mapisa-Nqakula‚ and its minister of State Security, Bongani Bongo‚ are on their way to Zimbabwe “to meet with President Robert Mugabe and the Zimbabwean Defence Force,” according to colleagues at the (South African) Times. Zuma made the announcement acting as chairperson of the Southern African Development Community (SADC), the region’s unique multinational organization.

Sadly, Mugabe has come close to destroying his country — economically, socially and politically — time and again. He gave sanctuary and succor to Mengistu Haile Mariam, former leader of Ethiopia and one of the continent’s worst tyrants. Mengistu was sentenced to death by an international tribunal in 2008 for genocide. Mugabe, who has looted and murdered and crippled his own country, may be in for some of the same. Where will the two tyrants flee to — North Korea?

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